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Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları

Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 182 - 191, 13.06.2018
https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.412274

Abstract

Son
zamanlarda birçok hidrolojik ve meteorolojik verilerde artan veya azalan
trendler (eğilimler) ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu makalede eğilim analizini (çözümlemesi)
herhangi bir kabule gerek duymadan gerçekleştiren Şen’in 1:1 doğru yöntemi ele
alınmıştır. Daha önemlisi, diğer bir adı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi olan bu
yöntem geliştirilmiştir. Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi yönteminin temellerine
dayanan Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi birbiriyle ilişki içinde
bulunan üç farklı veri dizisinin karşılaştırmasını aynı grafik üzerinde yapmak
için fırsat sunmaktadır
ancak verilerin boyutsuzlaştırılması bu uygulamanın temel esaslarındandır. Sonuç
itibariyle birbiriyle ilişkili günlük güneş ışınımı, güneşlenme süresi ve
sıcaklık verilerinin kullanıldığı uygulama sonuçları dört önemli bilgiyi açığa
çıkarabilmektedir. Bu bilgiler, üç farklı zaman dizisinin ayrı ayrı eğilim
çözümlemeleri ve bu üç eğilimin birbirine göre değişimleridir
. Meteoroloji Genel
Müdürlüğünden temin edilen veriler Adana, Antakya, Gaziantep ve Şanlıurfa
illerinde bulunan ölçüm noktalarında elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, her istasyonun
Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi uygulaması yapıldıktan sonra Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi uygulamalarına da yer verilerek yeni yöntemin üstünlüğü gösterilmiştir.




References

  • Alashan S., (2018), An improved version of innovative trend analyses, Arab J Geosci, 11(3), 50.
  • Belihu M., Abate B., Tekleab S., Bewket W., (2017), Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia, Phys Chem Earth., doi:10.1016/j.pce.2017.10.002.
  • Chiew F.H.S., McMahon T.A., (1993), Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers, Int. J. of Climatology, 13, 643-653.
  • Cui L., Wang L., Lai Z., Tian Q., Liu W., Li J., (2017), Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015, J Atmos Sol-Terr Phy, 164, 48-59.
  • Dabanlı İ., Şen Z., Yeleğen M.Ö., Şişman E., Selek B., Güçlü Y.S., (2016), Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method, Water Resour Manag, 30(14), 5193–5203.
  • Güçlü Y.S., Şişman E., Yeleğen M.Ö., (2018), Climate change and frequency–intensity–duration (FID) curves for Florya station, Istanbul, Journal of Flood Risk Management, DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12229.
  • Güçlü Y.S., (2018), Alternative Trend Analysis: Half Time Series Methodology, Water Resources Management, doi: 10.1007/s11269-018-1942-4.
  • Haan C.T., (1977), Statistical Methods in Hydrology, The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, 378ss.
  • Hamed K.H., Rao A.R., (1998), A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196.
  • Helsel D.R., Hirsch R.M., (2002), Statistical methods in water resources, Techniques of water resources investigations, Book 4, Chapter A3, U.S. Geological Survey, Shenandoah, TX.
  • Jhajharia D., Shrivastava S.K., Sarkar D., Sarkar S., (2009), Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 763–770.
  • Kendall M.G., (1975), Rank Correlation Method, 4th Edition, Charless Griffin, London, 202ss.
  • Mann H.B., (1945), Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259.
  • Markus M., Demissie M., Short M., Verma S., Cooke R., (2014), Sensitivity Analysis of Annual Nitrate Loads and the Corresponding Trends in the Lower Illinois River, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 533-543.
  • Nalley D., Adamowski J., Khalil B., Ozga-Zielinski B., (2013), Trend detection in surface air temperature in Ontario and Quebec, Canada during 1967–2006 using the discrete wavelet transform, Atmospheric Research, 132–133, 375–398.
  • Saplioglu K., Kilit M., Yavuz B.K., (2014), Trend Analysis of Streams in the Western Mediterranean Basin of Turkey, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 23(1A) 313-324.
  • Sen P.K., (1968), Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau, J. Am, Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389.
  • Sonali P., Kumar Nagesh D., (2013), Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India., Journal of Hydrology, 476, 212-227.
  • Şen Z., (2017), Innovative trend methodologies in science and engineering, Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 349ss.
  • Şen Z., (2014), Trend Identification Simulation and Application, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642.
  • Şen Z., (2012), Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology, J. Hydrol. Eng., 17(9), 1042–1046.
  • Taylor C.H., Loftis J.C., (1989), Testing for trend in lake and groundwater quality time series, Water Resources Bulletin 25(4), 715-726.

Fundamentals and Applications of Comparative Innovative Trend Analysis

Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 182 - 191, 13.06.2018
https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.412274

Abstract



Nowadays, innovative trend analysis methodology proposed by Şen became to
be employed for trend identification studies, since it presents visual
inspection of trends, which is the subject of this study. On basis of this
methodology, an alternative one is proposed as comparative

innovative trend analysis
approach. It helps to compare different data sets interrelated with each other
such as temperature, sunshine duration, and solar radiation on the same graph
but it is provided that the data must be dimensionless. Hence, comparative
results represent four important information, which are visualizations of three
data sets separately and comparison of their trend conditions. This study
comprises daily total solar radiation, daily total sunshine duration, and daily
mean temperature records obtained by Turkish State Meteorological Service in
some meteorological stations namely Adana, Antakya, Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa in
Turkey
. In addition, after the visualizations of comparative innovative trend analysis results for each station, classical innovative trend
analysis is implemented to show the superiority of the new method.




References

  • Alashan S., (2018), An improved version of innovative trend analyses, Arab J Geosci, 11(3), 50.
  • Belihu M., Abate B., Tekleab S., Bewket W., (2017), Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia, Phys Chem Earth., doi:10.1016/j.pce.2017.10.002.
  • Chiew F.H.S., McMahon T.A., (1993), Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers, Int. J. of Climatology, 13, 643-653.
  • Cui L., Wang L., Lai Z., Tian Q., Liu W., Li J., (2017), Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015, J Atmos Sol-Terr Phy, 164, 48-59.
  • Dabanlı İ., Şen Z., Yeleğen M.Ö., Şişman E., Selek B., Güçlü Y.S., (2016), Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method, Water Resour Manag, 30(14), 5193–5203.
  • Güçlü Y.S., Şişman E., Yeleğen M.Ö., (2018), Climate change and frequency–intensity–duration (FID) curves for Florya station, Istanbul, Journal of Flood Risk Management, DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12229.
  • Güçlü Y.S., (2018), Alternative Trend Analysis: Half Time Series Methodology, Water Resources Management, doi: 10.1007/s11269-018-1942-4.
  • Haan C.T., (1977), Statistical Methods in Hydrology, The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, 378ss.
  • Hamed K.H., Rao A.R., (1998), A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196.
  • Helsel D.R., Hirsch R.M., (2002), Statistical methods in water resources, Techniques of water resources investigations, Book 4, Chapter A3, U.S. Geological Survey, Shenandoah, TX.
  • Jhajharia D., Shrivastava S.K., Sarkar D., Sarkar S., (2009), Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 763–770.
  • Kendall M.G., (1975), Rank Correlation Method, 4th Edition, Charless Griffin, London, 202ss.
  • Mann H.B., (1945), Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259.
  • Markus M., Demissie M., Short M., Verma S., Cooke R., (2014), Sensitivity Analysis of Annual Nitrate Loads and the Corresponding Trends in the Lower Illinois River, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 533-543.
  • Nalley D., Adamowski J., Khalil B., Ozga-Zielinski B., (2013), Trend detection in surface air temperature in Ontario and Quebec, Canada during 1967–2006 using the discrete wavelet transform, Atmospheric Research, 132–133, 375–398.
  • Saplioglu K., Kilit M., Yavuz B.K., (2014), Trend Analysis of Streams in the Western Mediterranean Basin of Turkey, Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 23(1A) 313-324.
  • Sen P.K., (1968), Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau, J. Am, Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389.
  • Sonali P., Kumar Nagesh D., (2013), Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India., Journal of Hydrology, 476, 212-227.
  • Şen Z., (2017), Innovative trend methodologies in science and engineering, Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, 349ss.
  • Şen Z., (2014), Trend Identification Simulation and Application, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642.
  • Şen Z., (2012), Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology, J. Hydrol. Eng., 17(9), 1042–1046.
  • Taylor C.H., Loftis J.C., (1989), Testing for trend in lake and groundwater quality time series, Water Resources Bulletin 25(4), 715-726.
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Yavuz Selim Güçlü 0000-0002-9939-1157

Publication Date June 13, 2018
Submission Date April 3, 2018
Acceptance Date June 12, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018Volume: 4 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi, 4(2), 182-191. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.412274
AMA Güçlü YS. Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları. J Nat Haz Environ. July 2018;4(2):182-191. doi:10.21324/dacd.412274
Chicago Güçlü, Yavuz Selim. “Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri Ve Uygulamaları”. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi 4, no. 2 (July 2018): 182-91. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.412274.
EndNote Güçlü YS (July 1, 2018) Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 4 2 182–191.
IEEE Y. S. Güçlü, “Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları”, J Nat Haz Environ, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 182–191, 2018, doi: 10.21324/dacd.412274.
ISNAD Güçlü, Yavuz Selim. “Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri Ve Uygulamaları”. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 4/2 (July 2018), 182-191. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.412274.
JAMA Güçlü YS. Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları. J Nat Haz Environ. 2018;4:182–191.
MLA Güçlü, Yavuz Selim. “Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri Ve Uygulamaları”. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 2, 2018, pp. 182-91, doi:10.21324/dacd.412274.
Vancouver Güçlü YS. Kıyaslamalı Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi Temelleri ve Uygulamaları. J Nat Haz Environ. 2018;4(2):182-91.