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Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği

Year 2023, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 341 - 364, 30.07.2023

Mustafa Utku YILMAZ

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1296428

Abstract

Bu çalışma, ekonomisi büyük ölçüde tarıma dayalı olan Kırklareli ili için kapsamlı bir kuraklık analizi sunmayı amaçlamıştır. Kuraklığın eğilimi ve zamansal değişkenliği, Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi (SYİ) ve Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi (KKİ) kullanılarak 1, 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık zaman ölçeklerinde incelenmiştir. SYİ ve KKİ’yi hesaplamak için Kırklareli meteoroloji istasyonunun 1960-2021 su yılları arasındaki aylık yağış ve sıcaklık verileri kullanılmıştır. Farklı zaman ölçekleri için SYİ ve KKİ serilerinin eğilimlerini belirlemek için Mann-Kendall ve modifiye Mann-Kendall testleri, serilerdeki eğilimlerin büyüklüğünü belirlemek için Sen’in eğimi ve serilerin değişim noktasını tespit etmek için Pettitt testi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, SYİ ve KKİ'nin tüm zaman ölçekleri için benzer şekilde davrandığını ve her iki indeksin de neredeyse aynı kuraklık olaylarını yakalayabildiğini ortaya koymuştur. Bununla birlikte, SYİ'nin aynı zaman ölçeğindeki KKİ ile güçlü bir doğrusal ilişkiye sahip olduğu gözlenmiştir (r=0.99). KKİ’nin çoğunlukla SYİ'den biraz daha yüksek değerlere sahip olduğu ve şiddetli ve aşırı kuraklık olaylarının tespitinde daha hassas olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Farklı zaman ölçeklerinde kuraklık olaylarının oluşum yüzdeleri, SYİ’ler için %46.9 ile %51.3 arasında ve KKİ’ler için %47.2 ile %50.6 arasında değişmiştir. Her iki indeks için 12 aylık zaman ölçeğinde, 1989 yılı Şubat ayı ile 1995 yılı Mayıs ayı arasındaki 76 ay hem en uzun hem de en şiddetli kurak dönem olarak belirlenmiştir. Zaman ölçeği arttıkça kuraklık olaylarının sayısı azalmış ve kuraklık süresi artmıştır. Tüm zaman ölçeklerinde SYİ ve KKİ değerleri için istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir eğilim bulunmamıştır (p>0.05). Her iki indeks için de 1 aylık zaman ölçeğinde değişim noktası bulunmazken, 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık zaman ölçeklerinde değişim noktası tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi, Kırklareli, Kuraklık, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi

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Trend and Temporal Variability of Drought in Kirklareli Province Using Reconnaissance Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index

Year 2023, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 341 - 364, 30.07.2023

Mustafa Utku YILMAZ

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1296428

Abstract

This study aimed to provide a comprehensive drought analysis for Kırklareli province, whose economy is largely based on agriculture. The trend and temporal variability of drought were examined at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12-month time scales using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). The monthly precipitation and temperature data from the Kırklareli meteorological station between water years 1960-2021 were used to calculate the SPI and RDI. Mann-Kendall and modified Mann-Kendall tests were used to determine trends of SPI and RDI series for different time scales, Sen’s slope was used to identify the magnitude of trends in the series, and Pettitt's test was used to detect the change point of the series. The results revealed that the SPI and RDI behaved similarly for all time scales and both indices were able to capture almost the same drought events. Besides, it was observed that SPI had a strong linear relationship with RDI over the same time scale (r=0.99). RDI mostly had slightly higher values than SPI and it was concluded that RDI was more sensitive in the detection of extreme and severe drought events. The percentages of occurrence of drought events at different time scales ranged from 46.9% to 51.3% for SPIs and between 47.2% and 50.6% for RDIs. In the 12-month time scale for both indices, 76 months between February 1989 and May 1995 were determined as both the longest and the most severe dry period. As the time scale increased, the number of drought events decreased and the drought duration increased. No statistically significant trend was found for SPI and RDI values at all-time scales (p>0.05). For both indices, there was no change point in the 1-month time scale, but the change point was identified in the 3, 6, 9, and 12-month time scales.

Keywords

Reconnaissance Drought Index, Kirklareli, Drought, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, Standardized Precipitation Index

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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Mustafa Utku YILMAZ
KIRKLARELİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0002-5662-9479
Türkiye

Publication Date July 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023Volume: 9 Issue: 2

Cite

Bibtex @research article { dacd1296428, journal = {Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi}, eissn = {2528-9640}, address = {}, publisher = {Artvin Çoruh University}, year = {2023}, volume = {9}, number = {2}, pages = {341 - 364}, doi = {10.21324/dacd.1296428}, title = {Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği}, key = {cite}, author = {Yılmaz, Mustafa Utku} }
APA Yılmaz, M. U. (2023). Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği . Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi , 9 (2) , 341-364 . DOI: 10.21324/dacd.1296428
MLA Yılmaz, M. U. "Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği" . Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 9 (2023 ): 341-364 <http://dacd.artvin.edu.tr/en/pub/issue/79077/1296428>
Chicago Yılmaz, M. U. "Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği". Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 9 (2023 ): 341-364
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Trend and Temporal Variability of Drought in Kirklareli Province Using Reconnaissance Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index AU - Mustafa UtkuYılmaz Y1 - 2023 PY - 2023 N1 - doi: 10.21324/dacd.1296428 DO - 10.21324/dacd.1296428 T2 - Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 341 EP - 364 VL - 9 IS - 2 SN - -2528-9640 M3 - doi: 10.21324/dacd.1296428 UR - https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1296428 Y2 - 2023 ER -
EndNote %0 Journal of Natural Hazards and Environment Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği %A Mustafa Utku Yılmaz %T Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği %D 2023 %J Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi %P -2528-9640 %V 9 %N 2 %R doi: 10.21324/dacd.1296428 %U 10.21324/dacd.1296428
ISNAD Yılmaz, Mustafa Utku . "Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği". Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 9 / 2 (July 2023): 341-364 . https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1296428
AMA Yılmaz M. U. Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği. J Nat Haz Environ. 2023; 9(2): 341-364.
Vancouver Yılmaz M. U. Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi. 2023; 9(2): 341-364.
IEEE M. U. Yılmaz , "Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi Kullanılarak Kırklareli İlinde Kuraklığın Eğilimi ve Zamansal Değişkenliği", Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 341-364, Jul. 2023, doi:10.21324/dacd.1296428
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