Araştırma Makalesi
Trend Analysis of Lake Surface Temperatures in Lake Van
Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 221 - 237, 30.07.2022Öz
In this study, the change and trend of water surface temperatures of Lake Van has been investigated. For the period of 2016-2020; NASA-Day, NASA-Night satellite and measurement data obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service for 3 stations were compared. In addition, the monthly, the annual (minimum-average-maximum), the seasonal trend analysis of day and night long-term satellite data (2001-2020) and their significance levels were determined by the Theil-Sen and Innovative Trend Analysis. Measurement data covering for the period of 2016-2020 and NASA-Day, NASA-Night satellite data were highly compatible (R=0,94-0,99). NASA-Night water surface temperatures were found to be more compatible with measurement data than NASA-Day satellite data. NASA-Day and NASA-Night water surface temperatures covering for the period of 2001-2020 were found to be homogeneous at a 1% significant level. Water surface temperatures tend to increase both in the short and long term. The highest increase in monthly analyses (0,094 °C/year) was determined in June for NASA-Day and in April for NASA-Night (0,104 °C/year). The highest increase in seasonal analyses was seen in night data (0,080-0,099 °C/year) in the spring season. The average increase in long-term annual average water surface temperatures was calculated as 0,043 °C/year. It was concluded that this value is smaller than the increase determined for the Eastern Black Sea (0,11 °C/year), higher than the calculated for the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean (0,055°C/year), approximately 1,5 times the increase determined for the South Caspian Sea (0,029 ± 0,009 °C /year) and about 4 times the increase (as 0,011 °C/year) for the oceans.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Lake Van, Lake Surface Temperature, Trend Analysis, Homogeneity
Kaynakça
- Alexandersson H., (1986), A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data, Journal of Climatology, 6(6), 661-675.
- Alashan S., (2018), An improved version of innovative trend analyses, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11(3), 50, doi: 10.1007/s12517-018-3393-x.
- Arıkan B.B., Kahya E., (2019), Homogeneity revisited: analysis of updated precipitation series in Turkey, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(1), 211-220.
- Aydoğan B., Ayat B., (2018), Spatial variability of long-term trends of significant wave heights in the Black Sea, Applied Ocean Research, 79, 20-35.
- Batur E., Kadıoğlu M., Özkaya M., Saban M., Akın İ., (2009), Van gölü su seviye modellemesi, Su Vakfı Su Kaynakları, 2(1), 27-40.
- Buishand T.A., (1982), Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records, Journal of Hydrology 58(1-2), 11-27.
- Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., (2018), Application of the innovative trend analysis method for the trend analysis of rainfall anomalies in southern Italy, Water Resour Manag 32(15), 4971-4983.
- Caloiero T., (2020), Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA), Theor Appl Climatol 139(1), 493-504.
- Caloiero T., Aristodemo F., Ferraro D.A., (2022), Annual and seasonal trend detection of significant wave height, energy period and wave power in the Mediterranean Sea, 243, 110322.
- Carpenter S.R., Benson B.J., Biggs R., Chipman J.W., Foley J.A. et al., (2007), Understanding regional change: a comparison of two lake districts, Bioscience, 57(4), 323-335.
- Coşkun S., (2020), Van Gölü kapalı havzasında yağışların trend analizi, Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 8(2), 521-532.
- Çarpar T., Ayat B., Aydoğan B., (2020), Spatio-seasonal variations in long-term trends of offshore wind speeds over the Black Sea; an ınter-comparison of two reanalysis data, Pure Appl. Geophys, 177(6), 3013-3037.
- Çiftçi Y., Isık M.A, Alkevli T., Yesilova Ç., (2008), Van gölü havzasının çevre jeolojisi (Environmental Geology of Lake Van Basin), Jeoloji Mühendisliği Dergisi 32(2), 45-77.
- Dabanlı İ, Şen Z, Yeleğen M.Ö., Şişman E., Selek B., Güçlü Y.S., (2016), Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method, Water Resour Manag 30(14), 5193-5203.
- Dabanli I., Şişman E., Güçlü Y.S., Birpınar M.E., Şen Z., (2021), Climate change impacts on sea surface temperature (SST) trend around Turkey seashores, Acta Geophysica, 69(1), 295-305.
- Degens E., Wong H., Kempe S., Kurtman F., (1984), A geological study of Lake Van, Eastern Turkey, Int. Journal of Earth Sciences 73(2), 701-734.
- Emek M.F., (2014), Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi yıllık ve aylık toplam yağışların trend analizi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Atatürk Üniversitesi, Erzurum.
- Fırat M., Dikbaş F., Koç A.C, Güngör M., (2010), Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation series, Sadhana 35(6), 707-720.
- Ginzburg A.I., Kostianoy A.G., Sherement N.A., (2004), Seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea surface temperature as revealed from satellite data (1982-2000), Journal of Marine Systems, 52(1-4), 33-50.
- Hänsel S., Medeiros D.M., Matschullat J., Petta R.A., Silva I.M., (2016), Assessing Homogeneity and Climate Variability of Temperature and Precipitation Series in the Capitals of North-Eastern Brazil, Frontiers in Earth Science, 4(29), doi:10.3389/feart.2016.00029.
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- Huguet C., Fietz S., Stockhecke M., Sturmb M., Anselmetti F.S., Rosell-Melé A., (2011), Biomarker seasonality study in Lake Van, Turkey, Organic Geochemistry, 42(11), 1289-1298.
- Ishii M., Shouji A., Sugimoto S., Matsumoto T., (2005), Objective analyses of sea surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using icoads and the Kobe collection, International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 25(7), 865-879.
- Kadıoğlu M., Sen Z., Batur E., (1997), The greatest soda-water lake in the world and how it is influenced by climatic change, Annales Geophysicae-Atmospheres, Hydrospheres and Space Sciences, 15(11), 1489-1497.
- Kahya E., Arıkan B.B., Akdeniz E., (2016), Homogeneity analysis of Precipitation Series in Turkey, 12th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering – ACE 2016, 21 -23 September, İstanbul, Turkey.
- Karabörk M.Ç., Kahya E., Kömüşçü A.Ü., (2007), Analysis of Turkish precipitation data: homogeneity and the Southern Oscillation forcings on frequency distributions, Hydrological Process, 21(23), 3203-3210.
- Kashkooli O.B., Ghadami M. Amini M., Modarres R., (2019), Spatiotemporal variation of the southern Caspian Sea surface temperature during 1982-2016, Journal of Marine Systems, 193, 126-136.
- Kavak M.T., Karadoğan S., (2012), Van Gölünde Su Yüzeyi Sıcaklık Değişiminin AVHRR Uydu Verileriyle ile İncelenmesi, IV. Uzaktan Algılama ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri Sempozyumu (UZAL-CBS 2012), 16-19 Ekim, Bülent Ecevit Üniversitesi, Zonguldak.
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- Kendall M.G., (1975), Rank correlation method, 4 th Edition, Charless Griffin, London, pp. 202.
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- NASA, (2019), Level 3 browser. NASA Earth Data Ocean Color WEB. https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/l3/, [Erişim 29 Şubat 2019].
- Öğlü B., Möls T., Kaar T., Cremona F., Kangur K., (2020), Parameterization of surface water temperature and long-term trends in Europe’s fourth largest lake shows recent and rapid warming in winter, Limnologica 82, 125777.
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- Pettitt A.N., (1979), A non-parametric approach to the change-point detection, Applied Statistics, 28, 126-135.
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Van Gölü Su Yüzeyi Sıcaklıklarının Eğilim Analizi
Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 221 - 237, 30.07.2022Öz
Bu çalışmada, Van Gölü su yüzeyi sıcaklıklarının değişimi ve eğilimi araştırılmıştır. 2016-2020 tarih aralığı için; NASA-Gündüz, NASA-Gece uydu verileri ile Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’nden (MGM) 3 istasyon için edinilmiş olan ölçüm verileri karşılaştırılmıştır. Ayrıca gündüz ve gece uzun dönem uydu verilerinin (2001-2020) Theil-Sen ve Yenilikçi Eğilim Analizi yöntemleriyle aylık, yıllık (minimum-ortalama-maksimum) ve mevsimsel eğilim analizleri ile anlamlılık seviyeleri belirlenmiştir. 2016-2020 tarih aralığını kapsayan MGM ölçüm verileri ile NASA-Gündüz/NASA-Gece uydu verilerinin oldukça uyumlu olduğu belirlenmiştir (R=0,94-0,99). NASA-Gece su yüzeyi sıcaklıkları MGM ölçüm verileri ile daha uyumludur. 2001-2020 tarih aralığı için NASA-Gündüz ve NASA-Gece su yüzeyi sıcaklık verilerinin %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde homojen olduğu belirlenmiştir. Hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde su yüzeyi sıcaklıkları artış eğilimindedir. Aylık analizlerdeki en fazla artış (0,094 °C/yıl) gündüz verileri için Haziran ayında, gece verileri için (0,104 °C/yıl) Nisan ayında belirlenmiştir. Mevsimsel analizlerdeki en fazla artış ilkbahar mevsiminde gece verilerinde (0,080-0,099 °C/yıl) tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönem yıllık ortalama su yüzeyi sıcaklığındaki ortalama artış 0,043 °C/yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bu değerin, Doğu Karadeniz için belirlenmiş olan (0,11 °C/yıl) artıştan daha küçük, Ege ve Doğu Akdeniz için belirlenmiş olandan fazla (0,055°C/yıl), Güney Hazar Denizi için belirlenmiş olan artışın (0,029 ± 0,009 °C /yıl) yaklaşık 1,5 katı ve okyanuslar için belirlenmiş olan artışın (0,011 °C/yıl) yaklaşık 4 katı olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Alexandersson H., (1986), A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data, Journal of Climatology, 6(6), 661-675.
- Alashan S., (2018), An improved version of innovative trend analyses, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11(3), 50, doi: 10.1007/s12517-018-3393-x.
- Arıkan B.B., Kahya E., (2019), Homogeneity revisited: analysis of updated precipitation series in Turkey, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(1), 211-220.
- Aydoğan B., Ayat B., (2018), Spatial variability of long-term trends of significant wave heights in the Black Sea, Applied Ocean Research, 79, 20-35.
- Batur E., Kadıoğlu M., Özkaya M., Saban M., Akın İ., (2009), Van gölü su seviye modellemesi, Su Vakfı Su Kaynakları, 2(1), 27-40.
- Buishand T.A., (1982), Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records, Journal of Hydrology 58(1-2), 11-27.
- Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., (2018), Application of the innovative trend analysis method for the trend analysis of rainfall anomalies in southern Italy, Water Resour Manag 32(15), 4971-4983.
- Caloiero T., (2020), Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA), Theor Appl Climatol 139(1), 493-504.
- Caloiero T., Aristodemo F., Ferraro D.A., (2022), Annual and seasonal trend detection of significant wave height, energy period and wave power in the Mediterranean Sea, 243, 110322.
- Carpenter S.R., Benson B.J., Biggs R., Chipman J.W., Foley J.A. et al., (2007), Understanding regional change: a comparison of two lake districts, Bioscience, 57(4), 323-335.
- Coşkun S., (2020), Van Gölü kapalı havzasında yağışların trend analizi, Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 8(2), 521-532.
- Çarpar T., Ayat B., Aydoğan B., (2020), Spatio-seasonal variations in long-term trends of offshore wind speeds over the Black Sea; an ınter-comparison of two reanalysis data, Pure Appl. Geophys, 177(6), 3013-3037.
- Çiftçi Y., Isık M.A, Alkevli T., Yesilova Ç., (2008), Van gölü havzasının çevre jeolojisi (Environmental Geology of Lake Van Basin), Jeoloji Mühendisliği Dergisi 32(2), 45-77.
- Dabanlı İ, Şen Z, Yeleğen M.Ö., Şişman E., Selek B., Güçlü Y.S., (2016), Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method, Water Resour Manag 30(14), 5193-5203.
- Dabanli I., Şişman E., Güçlü Y.S., Birpınar M.E., Şen Z., (2021), Climate change impacts on sea surface temperature (SST) trend around Turkey seashores, Acta Geophysica, 69(1), 295-305.
- Degens E., Wong H., Kempe S., Kurtman F., (1984), A geological study of Lake Van, Eastern Turkey, Int. Journal of Earth Sciences 73(2), 701-734.
- Emek M.F., (2014), Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi yıllık ve aylık toplam yağışların trend analizi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Atatürk Üniversitesi, Erzurum.
- Fırat M., Dikbaş F., Koç A.C, Güngör M., (2010), Missing data analysis and homogeneity test for Turkish precipitation series, Sadhana 35(6), 707-720.
- Ginzburg A.I., Kostianoy A.G., Sherement N.A., (2004), Seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea surface temperature as revealed from satellite data (1982-2000), Journal of Marine Systems, 52(1-4), 33-50.
- Hänsel S., Medeiros D.M., Matschullat J., Petta R.A., Silva I.M., (2016), Assessing Homogeneity and Climate Variability of Temperature and Precipitation Series in the Capitals of North-Eastern Brazil, Frontiers in Earth Science, 4(29), doi:10.3389/feart.2016.00029.
- Hawkins M., (1977), Testing a sequence of observations for a shift in location, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72(357), 180-186.
- Huguet C., Fietz S., Stockhecke M., Sturmb M., Anselmetti F.S., Rosell-Melé A., (2011), Biomarker seasonality study in Lake Van, Turkey, Organic Geochemistry, 42(11), 1289-1298.
- Ishii M., Shouji A., Sugimoto S., Matsumoto T., (2005), Objective analyses of sea surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using icoads and the Kobe collection, International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 25(7), 865-879.
- Kadıoğlu M., Sen Z., Batur E., (1997), The greatest soda-water lake in the world and how it is influenced by climatic change, Annales Geophysicae-Atmospheres, Hydrospheres and Space Sciences, 15(11), 1489-1497.
- Kahya E., Arıkan B.B., Akdeniz E., (2016), Homogeneity analysis of Precipitation Series in Turkey, 12th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering – ACE 2016, 21 -23 September, İstanbul, Turkey.
- Karabörk M.Ç., Kahya E., Kömüşçü A.Ü., (2007), Analysis of Turkish precipitation data: homogeneity and the Southern Oscillation forcings on frequency distributions, Hydrological Process, 21(23), 3203-3210.
- Kashkooli O.B., Ghadami M. Amini M., Modarres R., (2019), Spatiotemporal variation of the southern Caspian Sea surface temperature during 1982-2016, Journal of Marine Systems, 193, 126-136.
- Kavak M.T., Karadoğan S., (2012), Van Gölünde Su Yüzeyi Sıcaklık Değişiminin AVHRR Uydu Verileriyle ile İncelenmesi, IV. Uzaktan Algılama ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri Sempozyumu (UZAL-CBS 2012), 16-19 Ekim, Bülent Ecevit Üniversitesi, Zonguldak.
- Kavak M.T., (2021), Long Time SST and Chlorophyll-a Pigment concentration of Lake Van Using MODIS, Int. Jour.of Agri, Environment and Food Sci., 5(1), 12-22.
- Kendall M.G., (1975), Rank correlation method, 4 th Edition, Charless Griffin, London, pp. 202.
- Kennedy J.J., Rayner N.A., Smith R.O., Parker D.E, Saunby M., (2011), Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization, J. Geophys. Res Atmos., 116, D14104.
- Keskin M.E., Çakto İ., Çetin V., Bektaş O., (2018), Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi sıcaklık ve yağış trend analizi, Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 6(2), 294-300.
- Mann H.B., (1945), Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
- NASA, (2019), Level 3 browser. NASA Earth Data Ocean Color WEB. https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/l3/, [Erişim 29 Şubat 2019].
- Öğlü B., Möls T., Kaar T., Cremona F., Kangur K., (2020), Parameterization of surface water temperature and long-term trends in Europe’s fourth largest lake shows recent and rapid warming in winter, Limnologica 82, 125777.
- Öztopal A., Şen Z., (2017), Innovative trend methodology applications to precipitation records in Turkey, Water resources management, 31(3), 727-737.
- Park K., Lee E.Y., Chang E., Hong S., (2015), Spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature and warming trends in the Yellow Sea, Journal of Marine Systems, 143, 24-38.
- Pettitt A.N., (1979), A non-parametric approach to the change-point detection, Applied Statistics, 28, 126-135.
- Rayner N. A., Parker D.E., Horton E.B., Folland C.K., Alexander L.V., Rowell D.P., Kent E.C., Kaplan A., (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, Journal of Geophysıcal Research Atmospheres, 108(D14), 1-22.
- Rhein Ma, Rintoul S.R., Aoki S., Campos E., Chambers D., Feely R.A., Gulev S., Johnson G., Josey S., Kostianoy A., (2013), Observations: ocean, Climate Change, 255-315.
- Rosenzweig C., Casassa G., Karoly D.J., Imeson A., Liu C., Menzel A., Rawlins S., Root T.L., Seguin B., Tryjanowski P., (2007), Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. In: Parry, M L; et al. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, ss.79-131.
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Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Çevre Bilimleri, Mühendislik, Fotogrametri ve Uzaktan Algılama |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar |
|
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Temmuz 2022 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 1 Ekim 2021 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 7 Mart 2022 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2022Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2 |
Kaynak Göster
Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ile lisanlanmıştır.